More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For GT Gold Holdings Limited's (HKG:8299) Shares After Tumbling 28%

The GT Gold Holdings Limited (HKG:8299) share price has softened a substantial 28% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 57%, which is great even in a bull market.

Even after such a large drop in price, GT Gold Holdings may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.9x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 11x and even P/E's lower than 6x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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GT Gold Holdings has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing earnings at a reasonable pace. It might be that many expect the reasonable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for GT Gold Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for GT Gold Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For GT Gold Holdings?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, GT Gold Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 2.5% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, EPS has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 19% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that GT Gold Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, GT Gold Holdings' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of GT Gold Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for GT Gold Holdings you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.