Stock Analysis

We Think Jiangxi Copper (HKG:358) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

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SEHK:358
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (HKG:358) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangxi Copper

What Is Jiangxi Copper's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 Jiangxi Copper had debt of CN¥70.0b, up from CN¥64.8b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥50.6b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥19.4b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:358 Debt to Equity History October 1st 2022

How Healthy Is Jiangxi Copper's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Jiangxi Copper had liabilities of CN¥86.9b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥19.8b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥50.6b and CN¥15.0b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥41.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥43.1b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Jiangxi Copper has net debt worth 1.9 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 6.9 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Shareholders should be aware that Jiangxi Copper's EBIT was down 37% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Jiangxi Copper's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Jiangxi Copper recorded free cash flow of 40% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Mulling over Jiangxi Copper's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Jiangxi Copper has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Jiangxi Copper is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Jiangxi Copper is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About SEHK:358

Jiangxi Copper

Jiangxi Copper Company Limited engages in exploring, mining, smelting, and refining copper in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation4
Future Growth1
Past Performance4
Financial Health4
Dividends3

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Good value with proven track record.