Is Jiangxi Copper (HKG:358) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (HKG:358) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangxi Copper

What Is Jiangxi Copper's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Jiangxi Copper had CN¥71.9b of debt, up from CN¥63.9b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥59.7b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥12.1b.

A Look At Jiangxi Copper's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Jiangxi Copper had liabilities of CN¥89.9b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥22.4b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥59.7b and CN¥11.5b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥41.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥61.0b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Jiangxi Copper's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Jiangxi Copper has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.2. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. On the other hand, Jiangxi Copper saw its EBIT drop by 5.7% in the last twelve months. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Jiangxi Copper's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Jiangxi Copper recorded free cash flow of 33% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Neither Jiangxi Copper's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its EBIT growth rate gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. We think that Jiangxi Copper's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Jiangxi Copper has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.