China National Building Material Company Limited Beat Revenue Forecasts By 22%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

China National Building Material Company Limited (HKG:3323) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.1% to HK$5.68 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenue of CN¥50b came in a notable 22% ahead of expectations, while statutory earnings of CN¥0.28 were in line with what the analysts had been forecasting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from China National Building Material's ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥188.2b in 2026. This reflects a modest 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 18% to CN¥0.65 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥188.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.64 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for China National Building Material

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$6.06, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on China National Building Material, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$7.64 and the most bearish at HK$4.19 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the China National Building Material's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that China National Building Material's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.4% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 9.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.9% annually for the foreseeable future. Although China National Building Material's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for China National Building Material going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for China National Building Material (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.