Zijin Mining Group's (HKG:2899) earnings growth rate lags the 40% CAGR delivered to shareholders

While Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (HKG:2899) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 17% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. To be precise, the stock price is 380% higher than it was five years ago, a wonderful performance by any measure. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. But the real question is whether the business fundamentals can improve over the long term.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

View our latest analysis for Zijin Mining Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Zijin Mining Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 46% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 37% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Zijin Mining Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Zijin Mining Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Zijin Mining Group, it has a TSR of 438% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Zijin Mining Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 12% over one year. That's including the dividend. However, that falls short of the 40% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Zijin Mining Group that you should be aware of.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.