Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Zhixin Group Holding Limited (HKG:2187) Shares Dive 27%

The Zhixin Group Holding Limited (HKG:2187) share price has softened a substantial 27% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Of course, over the longer-term many would still wish they owned shares as the stock's price has soared 106% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Zhixin Group Holding may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 76.4x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Zhixin Group Holding's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Zhixin Group Holding

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Zhixin Group Holding, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Zhixin Group Holding's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 74% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 44% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Zhixin Group Holding is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, Zhixin Group Holding's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Zhixin Group Holding currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Zhixin Group Holding you should be aware of, and 2 of them shouldn't be ignored.

You might be able to find a better investment than Zhixin Group Holding. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.