Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited's (HKG:1258) 31% Share Price Surge

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (HKG:1258) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 31% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 35% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that China Nonferrous Mining's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 10x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Recent times have been advantageous for China Nonferrous Mining as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this strong earnings performance might be about to tail off. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for China Nonferrous Mining

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Does Growth Match The P/E?

China Nonferrous Mining's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 21% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 17% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% each year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 12% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

In light of this, it's understandable that China Nonferrous Mining's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see average future growth and are only willing to pay a moderate amount for the stock.

The Bottom Line On China Nonferrous Mining's P/E

China Nonferrous Mining's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that China Nonferrous Mining maintains its moderate P/E off the back of its forecast growth being in line with the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings won't throw up any surprises. It's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

Having said that, be aware China Nonferrous Mining is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Nonferrous Mining, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.