Despite lower earnings than three years ago, MMG (HKG:1208) investors are up 307% since then

MMG Limited (HKG:1208) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 10% in the last week. But in three years the returns have been great. In three years the stock price has launched 283% higher: a great result. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. The thing to consider is whether the underlying business is doing well enough to support the current price.

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years of share price growth, MMG actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 0.4% per year.

Given the share price resilience, we don't think the (declining) EPS numbers are a good measure of how the business is moving forward, right now. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

It may well be that MMG revenue growth rate of 16% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We know that MMG has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on MMG

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between MMG's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. MMG's TSR of 307% for the 3 years exceeded its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that MMG shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 143% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 28% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with MMG .

But note: MMG may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.