AIA Group (SEHK:1299) Is Up 6.2% After Record 25% Q3 New Business Growth—Has the Bull Case Changed?

• AIA Group Limited recently reported a record 25% rise in its third-quarter 2025 value of new business, with double-digit growth led by Hong Kong, Mainland China, ASEAN, and India.
• This result was driven by a record agency value of new business and an 18% increase in recruitment, reflecting the company's strong distribution capabilities in Asian markets.
• We'll examine how AIA Group's record growth in new business value influences its investment outlook and long-term earnings narrative.

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AIA Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in AIA Group, you need to believe in the company's ability to sustain double-digit growth in new business value across key Asian markets, reinforced by its distribution strength. The recent record 25% jump in third-quarter new business value provides near-term validation of this growth thesis and supports positive sentiment around AIA’s dominant agency force; however, it does not remove the risk of volatility from macroeconomic or regulatory changes in China and Hong Kong, which remains a critical factor to watch. Among recent announcements, AIA’s August 2025 interim dividend declaration stands out, underlining management’s continued focus on returning capital to shareholders even as growth investments accelerate. This dividend announcement reinforces the perceived stability of AIA's capital base, which is important for investors assessing whether robust new business growth can translate into reliable distributions and long-term value. However, against these encouraging signals, investors should keep in mind the heightened risk posed by potential regulatory reforms in AIA's core markets, as...

Read the full narrative on AIA Group (it's free!)

AIA Group's projections suggest revenue of $25.1 billion and earnings of $8.5 billion by 2028. This is based on an annual revenue decline of 0.5% and an earnings increase of $2.4 billion from the current $6.1 billion.

Uncover how AIA Group's forecasts yield a HK$91.70 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community have published independent fair value estimates for AIA Group ranging from HK$47.90 to HK$117.52. While broad expansion into fast-growing Asian markets excites some, you should also consider how regulatory reforms could shape both earnings potential and overall market sentiment.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on AIA Group - why the stock might be worth 37% less than the current price!

Build Your Own AIA Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AIA Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AIA Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AIA Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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