AIA Group Limited's (HKG:1299) Share Price Matching Investor Opinion

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.2x AIA Group Limited (HKG:1299) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

AIA Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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How Is AIA Group's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like AIA Group's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 17% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 29% drop in EPS in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 28% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 15% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we can see why AIA Group is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that AIA Group maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for AIA Group with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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