Shanghai Conant Optical Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2276) 32% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Despite an already strong run, Shanghai Conant Optical Co., Ltd. (HKG:2276) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 32% in the last thirty days. The last month tops off a massive increase of 295% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, Shanghai Conant Optical may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 48x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 11x and even P/E's lower than 7x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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Shanghai Conant Optical certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Shanghai Conant Optical

Keen to find out how analysts think Shanghai Conant Optical's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Shanghai Conant Optical's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Shanghai Conant Optical's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 34%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 51% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 16% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15% each year, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that Shanghai Conant Optical is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Shanghai Conant Optical have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Shanghai Conant Optical currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Shanghai Conant Optical with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.