Kelfred Holdings Limited's (HKG:1134) Shares Lagging The Industry But So Is The Business

Kelfred Holdings Limited's (HKG:1134) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the Medical Equipment industry in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 3.3x and even P/S above 6x are quite common. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Kelfred Holdings

How Has Kelfred Holdings Performed Recently?

For instance, Kelfred Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Kelfred Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kelfred Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Kelfred Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.6%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 2.8% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 37% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's understandable that Kelfred Holdings' P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

What Does Kelfred Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As we suspected, our examination of Kelfred Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Kelfred Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.