- Hong Kong
- Real Estate
An Intrinsic Calculation For Longfor Group Holdings Limited (HKG:960) Suggests It's 30% Undervalued
- Longfor Group Holdings' estimated fair value is HK$31.17 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of HK$21.85 suggests Longfor Group Holdings is potentially 30% undervalued
- The CN¥36.70 analyst price target for 960 is 18% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Longfor Group Holdings Limited (HKG:960) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out our latest analysis for Longfor Group Holdings
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥28.9b||CN¥26.0b||CN¥25.8b||CN¥25.9b||CN¥26.0b||CN¥26.2b||CN¥26.5b||CN¥26.9b||CN¥27.3b||CN¥27.7b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x6||Analyst x5||Est @ -0.69%||Est @ 0.04%||Est @ 0.55%||Est @ 0.91%||Est @ 1.16%||Est @ 1.33%||Est @ 1.45%||Est @ 1.54%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 16%||CN¥24.9k||CN¥19.3k||CN¥16.5k||CN¥14.3k||CN¥12.3k||CN¥10.7k||CN¥9.4k||CN¥8.2k||CN¥7.1k||CN¥6.2k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥129b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥28b× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (16%– 1.7%) = CN¥197b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥197b÷ ( 1 + 16%)10= CN¥44b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥173b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$21.9, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Longfor Group Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Longfor Group Holdings
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Real Estate market.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Longfor Group Holdings, there are three essential factors you should further research:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for Longfor Group Holdings (1 is significant!) that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 960's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Longfor Group Holdings
Longfor Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development, investment, and management businesses in the People’s Republic of China.
Good value average dividend payer.