CGN Mining Company Limited

SHSC:1164 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$13.4b

CGN Mining Valuation

Is 1164 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1164 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1164 (HK$1.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$5.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1164 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1164?

Key metric: As 1164 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1164. This is calculated by dividing 1164's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1164's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.1x
EarningsHK$430.53m
Market CapHK$13.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1164's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1164 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
1277 Kinetic Development Group
4.3xn/aHK$12.0b
866 China Qinfa Group
31.9xn/aHK$3.7b
1171 Yankuang Energy Group
5.3x-5.5%HK$130.1b
1898 China Coal Energy
7x1.8%HK$164.9b
1164 CGN Mining
31.1x25.8%HK$13.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1164 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.1x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1164's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
276 Mongolia Energy
0.08xn/aUS$18.13m
663 King Stone Energy Group
1.3xn/aUS$15.51m
No more companies available in this PE range
1164 31.1xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1164 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.1x) compared to the Hong Kong Oil and Gas industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1164's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1164 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.1x
Fair PE Ratio10.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1164 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1164 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$1.76
HK$2.27
+29.1%
21.2%HK$3.39HK$1.70n/a10
Nov ’25HK$1.87
HK$2.18
+16.7%
23.8%HK$3.39HK$1.70n/a9
Oct ’25HK$1.64
HK$2.18
+33.1%
23.8%HK$3.39HK$1.70n/a9
Sep ’25HK$1.55
HK$2.38
+53.5%
24.3%HK$3.39HK$1.79n/a8
Aug ’25HK$2.14
HK$2.52
+17.5%
19.9%HK$3.39HK$1.79n/a8
Jul ’25HK$2.61
HK$2.52
-3.6%
19.9%HK$3.39HK$1.79n/a8
Jun ’25HK$2.95
HK$2.34
-20.8%
13.5%HK$2.81HK$1.79n/a8
May ’25HK$2.05
HK$2.08
+1.5%
8.9%HK$2.28HK$1.79n/a6
Apr ’25HK$1.73
HK$2.01
+16.4%
8.6%HK$2.28HK$1.79n/a7
Mar ’25HK$1.82
HK$1.92
+5.5%
10.0%HK$2.30HK$1.70n/a6
Feb ’25HK$1.96
HK$1.92
-2.0%
10.0%HK$2.30HK$1.70n/a6
Jan ’25HK$1.72
HK$1.86
+7.9%
6.0%HK$2.00HK$1.70n/a6
Dec ’24HK$1.66
HK$1.71
+3.0%
6.9%HK$1.85HK$1.52n/a6
Nov ’24HK$1.38
HK$1.60
+15.7%
9.5%HK$1.80HK$1.36HK$1.875
Oct ’24HK$1.53
HK$1.55
+1.0%
8.1%HK$1.70HK$1.36HK$1.644
Sep ’24n/a
HK$1.40
0%
14.0%HK$1.70HK$1.15HK$1.554
Aug ’24n/a
HK$1.40
0%
14.0%HK$1.70HK$1.15HK$2.144
Jul ’24n/a
HK$1.40
0%
14.0%HK$1.70HK$1.15HK$2.614
Jun ’24n/a
HK$1.40
0%
14.0%HK$1.70HK$1.15HK$2.954
May ’24n/a
HK$1.40
0%
14.0%HK$1.70HK$1.15HK$2.054
Apr ’24n/a
HK$1.33
0%
5.8%HK$1.40HK$1.22HK$1.733
Mar ’24n/a
HK$1.33
0%
5.8%HK$1.40HK$1.22HK$1.823
Feb ’24n/a
HK$1.33
0%
5.8%HK$1.40HK$1.22HK$1.963
Jan ’24n/a
HK$1.38
0%
1.4%HK$1.40HK$1.36HK$1.722
Dec ’23n/a
HK$1.38
0%
1.4%HK$1.40HK$1.36HK$1.662
Nov ’23n/a
HK$1.38
0%
1.4%HK$1.40HK$1.36HK$1.382

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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