PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) Just Recorded An Earnings Miss And Analysts Are Updating Their Numbers

PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) just released its latest half-year report and things are not looking great. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with CN¥742b revenues missing by 10%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.23 falling short of forecasts by some -12%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for PetroChina

Following last week's earnings report, PetroChina's 14 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CN¥3.03t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.8% to CN¥0.92. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥3.15t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.93 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at HK$8.29even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on PetroChina, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$10.44 and the most bearish at HK$3.51 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the PetroChina's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.7% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 0.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that PetroChina's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PetroChina going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - PetroChina has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.