CHK Oil Limited (HKG:632) Stock Rockets 449% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

CHK Oil Limited (HKG:632) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 449% share price jump in the last month. This latest share price bounce rounds out a remarkable 449% gain over the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking CHK Oil is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 2.4x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Oil and Gas industry have P/S ratios below 0.8x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for CHK Oil

What Does CHK Oil's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, CHK Oil has been doing very well. The P/S ratio is probably high because investors think this strong revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on CHK Oil's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as CHK Oil's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, we see the company's revenues grew exponentially. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 88% drop in revenue in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 0.4% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that CHK Oil's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On CHK Oil's P/S

CHK Oil shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that CHK Oil currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CHK Oil (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on CHK Oil, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.