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Inner Mongolia Yitai CoalLtd Valuation

Is 3948 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3948 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3948 (HK$17.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$130.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3948 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3948?

Key metric: As 3948 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3948. This is calculated by dividing 3948's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3948's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	3.1x
Earnings	CN¥10.91b
Market Cap	CN¥35.51b

3948 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	1.8x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3948's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3948 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.2x
1898 China Coal Energy	7x	1.8%	HK$164.7b
1171 Yankuang Energy Group	5.4x	-5.5%	HK$132.4b
1164 CGN Mining	32.1x	25.8%	HK$13.8b
1277 Kinetic Development Group	4.2x	n/a	HK$11.8b
3948 Inner Mongolia Yitai CoalLtd	3.1x	10.9%	HK$4.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3948 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the peer average (5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3948's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Oil and Gas Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
276 Mongolia Energy	0.08x	n/a	US$17.64m
663 King Stone Energy Group	1.3x	n/a	US$15.51m

No more companies available in this PE range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3948 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the Hong Kong Oil and Gas industry average (6.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3948's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3948 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.1x
Fair PE Ratio	6.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3948 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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