Value Partners Group Limited (HKG:806) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

The analysts covering Value Partners Group Limited (HKG:806) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the latest downgrade, the dual analysts covering Value Partners Group provided consensus estimates of HK$482m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 9.0% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 154% to HK$0.077. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$566m and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.087 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a considerable drop in earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Value Partners Group

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 17% to HK$2.50.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Value Partners Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2024 compared to the historical decline of 25% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.4% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Value Partners Group is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Value Partners Group. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Value Partners Group's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Value Partners Group.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.