Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited

SZSC:780 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$47.5b

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Valuation

Is 780 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 780 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
HK$36.15
Fair Value
42.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 780 (HK$20.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$36.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 780 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 780?

Key metric: As 780 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 780. This is calculated by dividing 780's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 780's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.2x
EarningsCN¥1.97b
Market CapCN¥43.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 780's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 780 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.6x
696 TravelSky Technology
14.7x10.61%HK$33.0b
69 Shangri-La Asia
13x13.40%HK$16.4b
71 Miramar Hotel and Investment Company
9xn/aHK$6.7b
308 China Travel International Investment Hong Kong
53.8x31.13%HK$5.7b
780 Tongcheng Travel Holdings
22.2x19.17%HK$47.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 780 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the peer average (22.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 780's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1383 LET Group Holdings
1.3xn/aUS$38.09m
487 Success Universe Group
2.4xn/aUS$29.08m
1655 Okura Holdings
1xn/aUS$9.24m
8052 Luk Hing Entertainment Group Holdings
1.3xn/aUS$2.74m
780 22.2xIndustry Avg. 16.0xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 780 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 780's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

780 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.2x
Fair PE Ratio18.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 780 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 780 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$20.75
HK$24.58
+18.47%
9.60%HK$28.26HK$18.33n/a22
May ’26HK$20.50
HK$24.27
+18.39%
9.61%HK$27.88HK$18.08n/a22
Apr ’26HK$21.05
HK$23.85
+13.30%
10.21%HK$28.00HK$17.68n/a22
Mar ’26HK$17.38
HK$23.04
+32.54%
10.74%HK$26.96HK$17.69n/a22
Feb ’26HK$19.56
HK$22.95
+17.31%
11.15%HK$27.00HK$17.72n/a22
Jan ’26HK$18.20
HK$22.54
+23.85%
11.62%HK$26.74HK$17.55n/a22
Dec ’25HK$18.98
HK$22.70
+19.61%
11.98%HK$27.47HK$17.72n/a23
Nov ’25HK$17.50
HK$20.83
+19.01%
13.11%HK$27.88HK$16.82n/a23
Oct ’25HK$19.96
HK$20.02
+0.29%
13.54%HK$23.92HK$14.18n/a23
Sep ’25HK$14.56
HK$19.72
+35.41%
13.31%HK$23.66HK$14.03n/a23
Aug ’25HK$13.10
HK$21.99
+67.83%
13.54%HK$28.29HK$16.95n/a23
Jul ’25HK$15.54
HK$23.62
+51.96%
8.10%HK$28.11HK$19.93n/a23
Jun ’25HK$17.86
HK$23.68
+32.58%
8.08%HK$28.18HK$19.99n/a23
May ’25HK$20.75
HK$23.42
+12.85%
10.04%HK$28.19HK$16.85HK$20.5023
Apr ’25HK$20.65
HK$23.04
+11.56%
9.77%HK$27.41HK$16.87HK$21.0523
Mar ’25HK$19.58
HK$21.91
+11.89%
12.92%HK$27.49HK$15.92HK$17.3823
Feb ’25HK$15.76
HK$21.90
+38.98%
12.91%HK$27.49HK$15.92HK$19.5623
Jan ’25HK$14.44
HK$22.12
+53.21%
13.95%HK$29.09HK$15.99HK$18.2023
Dec ’24HK$14.18
HK$22.07
+55.62%
13.93%HK$29.00HK$15.95HK$18.9823
Nov ’24HK$14.54
HK$22.51
+54.81%
11.97%HK$29.01HK$16.97HK$17.5023
Oct ’24HK$17.20
HK$22.73
+32.17%
10.57%HK$29.00HK$18.92HK$19.9623
Sep ’24HK$17.58
HK$22.94
+30.47%
10.23%HK$28.78HK$19.05HK$14.5624
Aug ’24HK$18.94
HK$21.85
+15.37%
11.74%HK$28.63HK$17.66HK$13.1023
Jul ’24HK$16.38
HK$21.66
+32.24%
11.93%HK$28.43HK$17.54HK$15.5422
Jun ’24HK$15.64
HK$22.02
+40.79%
11.77%HK$28.98HK$17.95HK$17.8622
May ’24HK$16.60
HK$21.54
+29.78%
9.19%HK$25.89HK$17.93HK$20.7522
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 22 Analysts
HK$24.58
Fair Value
15.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/13 18:16
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/13 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited is covered by 41 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ka Ho LiBOCI Research Ltd.
Lixin JuBofA Global Research
Wing Han ChanCCB International Securities Limited