Dashan Education Holdings Limited's (HKG:9986) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

When close to half the companies in the Consumer Services industry in Hong Kong have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.2x, you may consider Dashan Education Holdings Limited (HKG:9986) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 8.2x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Dashan Education Holdings

What Does Dashan Education Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Dashan Education Holdings certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing its revenue at a really rapid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to outperform the wider market, which has seemingly got people interested in the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Dashan Education Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Dashan Education Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 116% gain to the company's top line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 66% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 14% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Dashan Education Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Dashan Education Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Dashan Education Holdings (at least 1 which is potentially serious), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.