Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at CN¥4.4b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tongcheng Travel Holdings' 24 analysts is for revenues of CN¥19.6b in 2025. This reflects a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥19.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.16 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Tongcheng Travel Holdings

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of HK$24.53, with Tongcheng Travel Holdings seemingly executing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tongcheng Travel Holdings at HK$28.69 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$18.47. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tongcheng Travel Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Tongcheng Travel Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Tongcheng Travel Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$24.53, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

We have estimates for Tongcheng Travel Holdings from its 24 analysts out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.