Meituan (SEHK:3690): Exploring Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility

Meituan (SEHK:3690) has recently seen its stock fluctuate, drawing attention from investors who are watching the company’s performance over the past month. There is growing curiosity about what is driving sentiment around the stock now.

See our latest analysis for Meituan.

Zooming out, Meituan’s share price has struggled to regain its footing this year. Momentum has faded since January and a 1-year total shareholder return of -41.04% highlights the challenging climate for the stock. Recent volatility suggests that investors are still weighing the company’s long-term growth story against ongoing market risks.

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After months of turbulence and substantial losses, are Meituan’s shares now trading below their true value? Or is the market already factoring in the company’s future prospects? Could this be a timely buying opportunity, or are expectations already set?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.9% Undervalued

Based on the most widely followed narrative, Meituan's estimated fair value of HK$131.41 stands notably above the last close of HK$100.00. This suggests strong expectations for future upside, driven by both earnings growth and margin improvement.

Ongoing diversification into new business areas such as on-demand grocery delivery (Xiaoxiang Supermarket), international expansion (Keeta), and omnichannel retail positions Meituan to capture incremental revenue streams and reduce dependence on the saturated core food delivery market. This supports overall top-line resilience and long-term earnings potential.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s really fueling this high fair value? The narrative rides on bold revenue and profit improvements that could redefine Meituan’s growth trajectory. Do you want to see which blockbuster financial forecasts underpin this premium? Take a closer look at the figures moving the target price and the strategy behind it.

Result: Fair Value of $131.41 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising competition and uncertain returns from new ventures could compress margins and make it more difficult to achieve sustained long-term growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Meituan narrative.

Build Your Own Meituan Narrative

If you have a different perspective on Meituan’s outlook or want to dive into the numbers firsthand, why not craft your own take in just a few minutes? Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Meituan.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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