A Look At The Fair Value Of Green International Holdings Limited (HKG:2700)

Key Insights

• Green International Holdings' estimated fair value is HK$0.3 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of HK$0.3 suggests Green International Holdings is trading close to its fair value
• Green International Holdings' peers are currently trading at a premium of 39% on average

Does the December share price for Green International Holdings Limited (HKG:2700) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Green International Holdings

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)	HK$2.68m	HK$4.49m	HK$6.64m	HK$8.89m	HK$11.0m	HK$13.0m	HK$14.6m	HK$16.0m	HK$17.1m	HK$18.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 95.91%	Est @ 67.62%	Est @ 47.82%	Est @ 33.96%	Est @ 24.26%	Est @ 17.47%	Est @ 12.71%	Est @ 9.38%	Est @ 7.06%	Est @ 5.42%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9%	HK$2.5	HK$3.9	HK$5.3	HK$6.6	HK$7.6	HK$8.2	HK$8.6	HK$8.7	HK$8.7	HK$8.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$68m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$18m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (7.9%– 1.6%) = HK$294m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= HK$294m÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)¹⁰= HK$138m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$206m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.3, the company appears about fair value at a 2.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Green International Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.984. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Green International Holdings

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Green International Holdings, we've put together three essential factors you should look at:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Green International Holdings , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.