Okura Holdings Limited's (HKG:1655) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Okura Holdings Limited (HKG:1655) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. But the last month did very little to improve the 66% share price decline over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Okura Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Hospitality industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Okura Holdings

What Does Okura Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Okura Holdings' revenue has been unimpressive. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to only match most other companies at best over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Okura Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Okura Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Fortunately, a few good years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by 20% in total over the last three years. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Okura Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Okura Holdings' P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Okura Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Okura Holdings' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Okura Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.