Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Fulum Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1443) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Fulum Group Holdings
What Is Fulum Group Holdings's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2021 Fulum Group Holdings had HK$177.8m of debt, an increase on HK$94.6m, over one year. However, it does have HK$145.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about HK$32.7m.
How Strong Is Fulum Group Holdings' Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Fulum Group Holdings had liabilities of HK$736.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of HK$347.5m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$145.1m as well as receivables valued at HK$21.9m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling HK$917.1m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the HK$288.6m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Fulum Group Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Fulum Group Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
In the last year Fulum Group Holdings had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 37%, to HK$1.2b. That makes us nervous, to say the least.
Caveat Emptor
Not only did Fulum Group Holdings's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Indeed, it lost a very considerable HK$249m at the EBIT level. If you consider the significant liabilities mentioned above, we are extremely wary of this investment. Of course, it may be able to improve its situation with a bit of luck and good execution. But we think that is unlikely since it is low on liquid assets, and made a loss of HK$168m in the last year. So we think this stock is quite risky. We'd prefer to pass. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Fulum Group Holdings (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About SEHK:1443
Fulum Group Holdings
An investment holding company, operates restaurants under the Fulum, Sportful Garden, and Asian Catering Line brands in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
Fair value with mediocre balance sheet.