Madison Holdings Group Limited's (HKG:8057) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

Madison Holdings Group Limited's (HKG:8057) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.7x may not look like an appealing investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Consumer Retailing industry in Hong Kong have P/S ratios below 0.8x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Madison Holdings Group

How Has Madison Holdings Group Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Madison Holdings Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Madison Holdings Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Madison Holdings Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 26%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 59% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Madison Holdings Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Madison Holdings Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Having said that, be aware Madison Holdings Group is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are a bit concerning.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.