ANTA Sports Products Valuation

Is 2020 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2020 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2020 (HK$78.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$146.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2020 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2020?

Key metric: As 2020 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2020. This is calculated by dividing 2020's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2020's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.6x
Earnings	CN¥13.21b
Market Cap	CN¥205.95b

2020 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.6x
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2020's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2020 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16x
1913 Prada	22.4x	10.9%	HK$140.7b
2313 Shenzhou International Group Holdings	15.3x	12.8%	HK$90.1b
3998 Bosideng International Holdings	14x	12.6%	HK$47.4b
2331 Li Ning	12.4x	9.9%	HK$41.3b
2020 ANTA Sports Products	15.6x	7.8%	HK$221.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2020 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2020's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Luxury Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
8211 Zhejiang Yongan Rongtong Holdings	1x	n/a	US$5.47m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2020 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Luxury industry average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2020's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2020 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.6x
Fair PE Ratio	12x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2020 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2020 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$78.25	HK$113.39 +44.9%	11.0%	HK$141.06	HK$69.48	n/a	33
Nov ’25	HK$84.20	HK$115.14 +36.7%	11.1%	HK$143.19	HK$70.53	n/a	33
Oct ’25	HK$94.45	HK$108.82 +15.2%	13.6%	HK$142.77	HK$71.65	n/a	33
Sep ’25	HK$76.80	HK$107.83 +40.4%	13.6%	HK$142.51	HK$76.16	n/a	33
Aug ’25	HK$67.95	HK$108.60 +59.8%	14.0%	HK$143.86	HK$75.02	n/a	35
Jul ’25	HK$75.00	HK$112.18 +49.6%	12.2%	HK$143.03	HK$94.65	n/a	35
Jun ’25	HK$83.25	HK$112.52 +35.2%	12.2%	HK$143.52	HK$94.98	n/a	35
May ’25	HK$89.70	HK$112.40 +25.3%	12.1%	HK$143.79	HK$95.15	n/a	36
Apr ’25	HK$83.20	HK$111.46 +34.0%	12.8%	HK$144.17	HK$84.13	n/a	36
Mar ’25	HK$76.15	HK$110.59 +45.2%	15.4%	HK$152.50	HK$84.44	n/a	35
Feb ’25	HK$65.20	HK$113.31 +73.8%	15.8%	HK$152.66	HK$84.53	n/a	34
Jan ’25	HK$75.75	HK$122.65 +61.9%	11.3%	HK$154.79	HK$99.12	n/a	34
Dec ’24	HK$78.90	HK$122.93 +55.8%	11.4%	HK$157.57	HK$98.63	n/a	34
Nov ’24	HK$88.35	HK$120.15 +36.0%	11.6%	HK$153.86	HK$96.31	HK$84.20	34
Oct ’24	HK$88.15	HK$119.51 +35.6%	11.9%	HK$151.53	HK$95.34	HK$94.45	33
Sep ’24	HK$88.35	HK$119.94 +35.8%	11.7%	HK$150.86	HK$95.77	HK$76.80	33
Aug ’24	HK$89.30	HK$118.51 +32.7%	10.5%	HK$148.59	HK$95.29	HK$67.95	34
Jul ’24	HK$80.05	HK$126.76 +58.3%	6.1%	HK$146.93	HK$106.97	HK$75.00	34
Jun ’24	HK$78.60	HK$130.28 +65.8%	4.2%	HK$144.43	HK$121.84	HK$83.25	34
May ’24	HK$96.80	HK$133.34 +37.7%	4.0%	HK$148.18	HK$123.33	HK$89.70	33
Apr ’24	HK$114.00	HK$134.05 +17.6%	4.4%	HK$149.35	HK$122.24	HK$83.20	33
Mar ’24	HK$109.70	HK$126.85 +15.6%	6.8%	HK$145.00	HK$104.22	HK$76.15	33
Feb ’24	HK$118.10	HK$128.72 +9.0%	7.3%	HK$149.02	HK$107.11	HK$65.20	34
Jan ’24	HK$102.30	HK$112.08 +9.6%	11.0%	HK$144.44	HK$91.59	HK$75.75	32
Dec ’23	HK$92.55	HK$111.25 +20.2%	11.6%	HK$142.87	HK$90.59	HK$78.90	33
Nov ’23	HK$73.40	HK$109.48 +49.1%	11.4%	HK$140.10	HK$88.83	HK$88.35	33

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.