Ferretti Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Ferretti is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.7% and 0.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10% in 3 years.
Key information
6.7%
Earnings growth rate
5.63%
EPS growth rate
| Leisure earnings growth | 18.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 0.9% |
| Future return on equity | 9.97% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 01 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 26
9638: Tender Offer Outcome Will Shape Governance Shift And Supportive Dividend Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Ferretti from about HK$42.49 to roughly HK$46.97, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E multiples. What's in the News KKCG Maritime completed the acquisition of an additional 8.74% stake in Ferretti for approximately €120 million, increasing its holding to 78,641,625 shares (23.25% of Ferretti's share capital) after a tender offer that ran from March 16 to April 13, 2026 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 28
9638: Tender Offer, Governance Slate And Dividend Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Ferretti to about HK$42.49 from around HK$45.34. They cited slightly higher discount rate assumptions and a lower future P/E multiple, while keeping revenue growth and profit margin expectations broadly unchanged.Narrative Update • Apr 08
9638: Cancelled Tender Offer And Dividend Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook
Analysts have nudged their Ferretti price target higher from HK$41.92 to HK$45.34, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue, a modestly higher profit margin and a small adjustment to the future P/E multiple. What's in the News KKCG Maritime cancelled its planned acquisition of an additional 15.4% stake in Ferretti S.p.A. for approximately €200m revised maximum consideration, after Ferretti's board described the improved €3.90 per share offer as not fair and not reasonable and advised shareholders to reject it (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 25
9638: Rising Stake Tender Offer Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target for Ferretti from HK$40.93 to HK$41.92, reflecting updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate and future P/E while keeping revenue growth and profit margin expectations broadly consistent. What's in the News KKCG Maritime agreed to acquire an additional 15.4% stake in Ferretti S.p.A. for approximately €180 million at €3.50 per share on a cum dividend basis, which would raise its holding from 14.5% to 29.9%, with funding coming from internal resources.Narrative Update • Mar 10
9638: Rising Stake Tender Offer Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their HK$ fair value estimate for Ferretti from about HK$41.53 to around HK$40.93, citing slightly softer assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins. This is partly balanced by a marginally lower discount rate and a modestly higher future P/E outlook.Narrative Update • Feb 24
9638: Rising Stake And Upcoming Board Decisions Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their HK$ fair value estimate for Ferretti from about HK$41.99 to about HK$41.53, reflecting slightly more conservative assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News Board meeting on February 24, 2026 to consider approval of the preliminary consolidated results as at December 31, 2025 and other business matters (company filing).Narrative Update • Feb 07
9638: Rising Stake Acquisition Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook
Narrative Update: Ferretti Analyst Price Target Shift Analysts now see Ferretti’s fair value at about €42 per share, up from roughly €37. This reflects updated views on a slightly lower discount rate, higher revenue growth assumptions, a modestly adjusted profit margin outlook, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple.Analysis Article • Jan 26
An Intrinsic Calculation For Ferretti S.p.A. (HKG:9638) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for Ferretti is HK$62.04 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Ferretti is...Analysis Article • Jan 07
Ferretti S.p.A.'s (HKG:9638) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk
It's not a stretch to say that Ferretti S.p.A.'s ( HKG:9638 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.2x right now...Analysis Article • Jun 11
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Ferretti's (HKG:9638) Returns On Capital
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • May 28
Ferretti S.p.A.'s (HKG:9638) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Ferretti S.p.A. ( HKG:9638 ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand...Analysis Article • May 06
Shareholders May Not Be So Generous With Ferretti S.p.A.'s (HKG:9638) CEO Compensation And Here's Why
Key Insights Ferretti to hold its Annual General Meeting on 13th of May CEO Alberto Galassi's total compensation...Analysis Article • Apr 23
We Think That There Are Some Issues For Ferretti (HKG:9638) Beyond Its Promising Earnings
Ferretti S.p.A.'s ( HKG:9638 ) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We believe that...
New Narrative • Feb 18
Riva Residenze And INFYNITO Series Expected To Boost Competitive Edge
Ferretti's focus on high-margin yacht segments and residential luxury is set to enhance revenue stability, diversify streams, and elevate earnings.Analysis Article • May 25
With EPS Growth And More, Ferretti (HKG:9638) Makes An Interesting Case
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • May 08
Investors Will Want Ferretti's (HKG:9638) Growth In ROCE To Persist
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • Apr 17
What Ferretti S.p.A.'s (HKG:9638) P/E Is Not Telling You
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.9x Ferretti S.p.A. ( HKG:9638 ) may be sending bearish signals at the...Analysis Article • Mar 24
Ferretti's (HKG:9638) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
Ferretti S.p.A.'s ( HKG:9638 ) robust earnings report didn't manage to move the market for its stock. We did some...Analysis Article • Feb 13
Is Now The Time To Put Ferretti (HKG:9638) On Your Watchlist?
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Analysis Article • Jan 06
Ferretti (HKG:9638) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. One common...Analysis Article • Sep 28
Ferretti (HKG:9638) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • Aug 11
Ferretti's (HKG:9638) Solid Earnings Have Been Accounted For Conservatively
Ferretti S.p.A.'s ( HKG:9638 ) solid earnings announcement recently didn't do much to the stock price. Our analysis...Analysis Article • Aug 05
Is There An Opportunity With Ferretti S.p.A.'s (HKG:9638) 21% Undervaluation?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ferretti S.p.A. ( HKG:9638 ) by taking the...Analysis Article • Jul 06
There's Reason For Concern Over Ferretti S.p.A.'s (HKG:9638) Price
Ferretti S.p.A.'s ( HKG:9638 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.9x might make it look like a strong sell right...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,420 | 108 | 106 | 183 | 7 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,345 | 99 | 85 | 155 | 7 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,297 | 89 | 80 | 119 | 8 |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,390 | 90 | 72 | 169 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,366 | 89 | -10 | 94 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,342 | 88 | -93 | 19 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,339 | 88 | -107 | 10 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,336 | 88 | -122 | 1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 1,316 | 87 | -81 | 46 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 1,296 | 86 | -41 | 90 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 1,263 | 85 | -50 | 92 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1,229 | 83 | -59 | 94 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,196 | 77 | -62 | 79 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 1,162 | 71 | -65 | 64 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 1,133 | 66 | 0 | 105 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 1,104 | 60 | 64 | 146 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,079 | 50 | 81 | 171 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,038 | 44 | 134 | 224 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 997 | 41 | 165 | 248 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 956 | 38 | 195 | 272 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 936 | 48 | 186 | 259 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 672 | 22 | -15 | 57 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 714 | 27 | -32 | 54 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 704 | 39 | N/A | 68 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 679 | 35 | N/A | 49 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 657 | 31 | N/A | 30 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 602 | 24 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 544 | 14 | N/A | 8 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: 9638's forecast earnings growth (6.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3%).
Earnings vs Market: 9638's earnings (6.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (12.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: 9638's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: 9638's revenue (0.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (8.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: 9638's revenue (0.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: 9638's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/09 16:27 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/09 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Ferretti S.p.A. is covered by 12 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Carmen Novel | Banca Akros S.p.A. (ESN) |
| Anna Frontani | Berenberg |
| null null | China International Capital Corporation Limited |