Greatime International Holdings Limited's (HKG:844) 52% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Greatime International Holdings Limited (HKG:844) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 52% after a shaky period beforehand. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 4.1% over the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Greatime International Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Luxury industry is similar at about 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Greatime International Holdings

How Greatime International Holdings Has Been Performing

Greatime International Holdings has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Greatime International Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Greatime International Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Greatime International Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.3%. Revenue has also lifted 22% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 16% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that Greatime International Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Greatime International Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Greatime International Holdings' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Greatime International Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.