Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Samson Holding Ltd. (HKG:531)

When close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 8x, you may consider Samson Holding Ltd. (HKG:531) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 12.6x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

For example, consider that Samson Holding's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Samson Holding

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Samson Holding's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Samson Holding would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 74%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that Samson Holding's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Samson Holding revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Samson Holding (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.