Quali-Smart Holdings Limited's (HKG:1348) 27% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Quali-Smart Holdings Limited (HKG:1348) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 27% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Looking at the bigger picture, even after this poor month the stock is up 38% in the last year.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Quali-Smart Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Leisure industry is similar at about 0.6x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Quali-Smart Holdings

What Does Quali-Smart Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Quali-Smart Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Quali-Smart Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Quali-Smart Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 48%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 64% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Quali-Smart Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Quali-Smart Holdings' P/S

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Quali-Smart Holdings looks to be in line with the rest of the Leisure industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our look at Quali-Smart Holdings revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Quali-Smart Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.