What Winson Holdings Hong Kong Limited's (HKG:6812) 44% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Winson Holdings Hong Kong Limited (HKG:6812) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 44% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 11% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Winson Holdings Hong Kong's P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Commercial Services industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Winson Holdings Hong Kong

How Winson Holdings Hong Kong Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen at a steady rate over the last year for Winson Holdings Hong Kong, which is generally not a bad outcome. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Winson Holdings Hong Kong's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Winson Holdings Hong Kong's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Winson Holdings Hong Kong's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.3%. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 5.7% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 4.6% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Winson Holdings Hong Kong's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Winson Holdings Hong Kong's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Winson Holdings Hong Kong trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Winson Holdings Hong Kong (including 2 which are potentially serious).

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.