Optimistic Investors Push Graphex Group Limited (HKG:6128) Shares Up 29% But Growth Is Lacking

Graphex Group Limited (HKG:6128) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 78% share price drop in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Graphex Group's P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Professional Services industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.3x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for Graphex Group

How Has Graphex Group Performed Recently?

Graphex Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Graphex Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Graphex Group?

Graphex Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 29% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 44% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the lone analyst covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 20% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 10%.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Graphex Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining revenues are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Graphex Group appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

It appears that Graphex Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/S for a company whose revenues are forecast to decline. With this in mind, we don't feel the current P/S is justified as declining revenues are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If the poor revenue outlook tells us one thing, it's that these current price levels could be unsustainable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for Graphex Group (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Graphex Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.