BOC Aviation (SHSC:2588) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2588 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2588 (HK$60.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$215.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2588 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2588?

Key metric: As 2588 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2588. This is calculated by dividing 2588's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2588's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	5.6x
Earnings	US$962.35m
Market Cap	US$5.42b

2588 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	10x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19x
PEG Ratio	-1.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2588's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2588 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.1x
2866 COSCO SHIPPING Development	8.3x	32.4%	HK$32.3b
9878 Huitongda Network	30.5x	29.0%	HK$10.8b
9930 Horizon Construction Development	4.6x	14.6%	HK$4.9b
990 Theme International Holdings	9x	n/a	HK$6.0b
2588 BOC Aviation	5.6x	-3.1%	HK$42.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2588 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2588's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Trade Distributors Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1733 E-Commodities Holdings	1.8x	n/a	US$477.88m
1001 Hong Kong Shanghai Alliance Holdings	2.1x	n/a	US$21.25m
380 China Pipe Group	1.8x	n/a	US$14.71m
1142 E&P Global Holdings	0.7x	n/a	US$9.31m

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2588 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Trade Distributors industry average (10.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2588's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2588 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.6x
Fair PE Ratio	5.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2588 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2588 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$60.80	HK$76.83 +26.4%	5.3%	HK$82.05	HK$69.58	n/a	14
Nov ’25	HK$61.45	HK$76.76 +24.9%	5.2%	HK$82.00	HK$69.53	n/a	14
Oct ’25	HK$64.30	HK$77.01 +19.8%	5.2%	HK$82.08	HK$69.79	n/a	14
Sep ’25	HK$67.20	HK$76.63 +14.0%	5.3%	HK$82.05	HK$69.77	n/a	15
Aug ’25	HK$68.65	HK$74.39 +8.4%	4.6%	HK$81.42	HK$68.98	n/a	15
Jul ’25	HK$56.00	HK$73.77 +31.7%	5.6%	HK$81.25	HK$64.89	n/a	15
Jun ’25	HK$58.00	HK$73.48 +26.7%	5.6%	HK$81.30	HK$64.94	n/a	15
May ’25	HK$62.50	HK$73.91 +18.3%	5.6%	HK$81.50	HK$65.10	n/a	14
Apr ’25	HK$60.30	HK$73.85 +22.5%	5.7%	HK$81.40	HK$65.02	n/a	14
Mar ’25	HK$56.70	HK$73.24 +29.2%	6.7%	HK$81.56	HK$62.80	n/a	14
Feb ’25	HK$59.60	HK$73.19 +22.8%	6.7%	HK$81.50	HK$62.78	n/a	14
Jan ’25	HK$59.70	HK$72.83 +22.0%	6.5%	HK$81.37	HK$62.67	n/a	14
Dec ’24	HK$54.80	HK$72.68 +32.6%	6.5%	HK$81.09	HK$62.57	n/a	14
Nov ’24	HK$48.35	HK$73.16 +51.3%	6.2%	HK$81.41	HK$62.81	HK$61.45	14
Oct ’24	HK$54.65	HK$74.35 +36.1%	4.8%	HK$81.58	HK$68.13	HK$64.30	15
Sep ’24	HK$58.85	HK$74.35 +26.3%	4.8%	HK$81.58	HK$68.13	HK$67.20	15
Aug ’24	HK$65.20	HK$74.34 +14.0%	5.9%	HK$81.24	HK$64.58	HK$68.65	14
Jul ’24	HK$63.35	HK$74.63 +17.8%	5.9%	HK$81.41	HK$64.95	HK$56.00	14
Jun ’24	HK$56.00	HK$74.48 +33.0%	5.8%	HK$81.18	HK$64.83	HK$58.00	14
May ’24	HK$62.00	HK$74.67 +20.4%	5.8%	HK$81.40	HK$65.00	HK$62.50	14
Apr ’24	HK$60.65	HK$75.40 +24.3%	5.5%	HK$81.40	HK$65.00	HK$60.30	13
Mar ’24	HK$58.50	HK$75.02 +28.2%	5.1%	HK$79.55	HK$65.04	HK$56.70	13
Feb ’24	HK$64.70	HK$75.02 +16.0%	5.1%	HK$79.55	HK$65.04	HK$59.60	13
Jan ’24	HK$65.15	HK$73.96 +13.5%	5.4%	HK$78.97	HK$64.56	HK$59.70	13
Dec ’23	HK$61.15	HK$73.80 +20.7%	5.2%	HK$79.06	HK$65.00	HK$54.80	13
Nov ’23	HK$55.80	HK$74.07 +32.7%	5.4%	HK$79.20	HK$65.04	HK$48.35	12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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BOC Aviation Valuation