Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Dragon Rise Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6829) Shares Dive 26%

Dragon Rise Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6829) shares have retraced a considerable 26% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Dragon Rise Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Dragon Rise Group Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Dragon Rise Group Holdings

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Dragon Rise Group Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 48%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Dragon Rise Group Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Dragon Rise Group Holdings' P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, Dragon Rise Group Holdings' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Dragon Rise Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Dragon Rise Group Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.