Fosun International (HKG:656) earnings and shareholder returns have been trending downwards for the last five years, but the stock lifts 5.5% this past week
Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. Zooming in on an example, the Fosun International Limited (HKG:656) share price dropped 68% in the last half decade. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 31%. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 8.7% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
The recent uptick of 5.5% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
Check out our latest analysis for Fosun International
SWOT Analysis for Fosun International
- Net debt to equity ratio below 40%.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Industrials market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Looking back five years, both Fosun International's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 47% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 20% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve. The high P/E ratio of 75.73 suggests that shareholders believe earnings will grow in the years ahead.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Fosun International the TSR over the last 5 years was -64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 7.6% in the twelve months, Fosun International shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Fosun International better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Fosun International is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course Fosun International may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.