Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) Following Its Earnings Miss

China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It looks like a weak result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of HK$115b missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of HK$1.86 fell short of forecasts by 9.7%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the nine analysts covering China State Construction International Holdings are now predicting revenues of HK$128.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 14% to HK$2.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$145.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$2.35 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that sentiment has declined measurably after results came out, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a small dip in EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for China State Construction International Holdings

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$13.58, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on China State Construction International Holdings' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on China State Construction International Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$15.61 and the most bearish at HK$12.10 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting China State Construction International Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that China State Construction International Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while China State Construction International Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China State Construction International Holdings. They also downgraded China State Construction International Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China State Construction International Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple China State Construction International Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with China State Construction International Holdings (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.