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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311)
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Our analysis indicates that 3311 is potentially undervalued!
The Model
We have to calculate the value of China State Construction International Holdings slightly differently to other stocks because it is a construction company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%. Compared to the current share price of HK$8.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= HK$0.5 / (8.6% – 1.6%)
= HK$7.7
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China State Construction International Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.194. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for China State Construction International Holdings
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For China State Construction International Holdings, there are three further factors you should further research:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China State Construction International Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 3311's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:3311
China State Construction International Holdings
An investment holding company, engages in the construction business for private and public sectors in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, and internationally.
Proven track record with moderate growth potential.