BOC Aviation Limited

SEHK:2588 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$41.8b

BOC Aviation Valuation

Is 2588 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2588 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2588 (HK$60.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$215.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2588 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2588?

Key metric: As 2588 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2588. This is calculated by dividing 2588's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2588's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.6x
EarningsUS$962.35m
Market CapUS$5.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2588's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2588 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.3x
2866 COSCO SHIPPING Development
8.2x32.4%HK$31.3b
9878 Huitongda Network
31.1x29.0%HK$11.0b
9930 Horizon Construction Development
4.1x14.6%HK$4.4b
1733 E-Commodities Holdings
1.8xn/aHK$3.8b
2588 BOC Aviation
5.6x-3.1%HK$41.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2588 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2588's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Trade Distributors Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1733 E-Commodities Holdings
1.8xn/aUS$485.11m
1001 Hong Kong Shanghai Alliance Holdings
2.3xn/aUS$22.90m
380 China Pipe Group
1.8xn/aUS$14.72m
1142 E&P Global Holdings
0.5xn/aUS$6.71m
No more companies available in this PE range
2588 5.6xIndustry Avg. 10.4xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2588 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Trade Distributors industry average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2588's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2588 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.6x
Fair PE Ratio5.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2588 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2588 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$60.20
HK$77.44
+28.6%
4.8%HK$82.14HK$69.65n/a13
Nov ’25HK$61.45
HK$76.76
+24.9%
5.2%HK$82.00HK$69.53n/a14
Oct ’25HK$64.30
HK$77.01
+19.8%
5.2%HK$82.08HK$69.79n/a14
Sep ’25HK$67.20
HK$76.63
+14.0%
5.3%HK$82.05HK$69.77n/a15
Aug ’25HK$68.65
HK$74.39
+8.4%
4.6%HK$81.42HK$68.98n/a15
Jul ’25HK$56.00
HK$73.77
+31.7%
5.6%HK$81.25HK$64.89n/a15
Jun ’25HK$58.00
HK$73.48
+26.7%
5.6%HK$81.30HK$64.94n/a15
May ’25HK$62.50
HK$73.91
+18.3%
5.6%HK$81.50HK$65.10n/a14
Apr ’25HK$60.30
HK$73.85
+22.5%
5.7%HK$81.40HK$65.02n/a14
Mar ’25HK$56.70
HK$73.24
+29.2%
6.7%HK$81.56HK$62.80n/a14
Feb ’25HK$59.60
HK$73.19
+22.8%
6.7%HK$81.50HK$62.78n/a14
Jan ’25HK$59.70
HK$72.83
+22.0%
6.5%HK$81.37HK$62.67n/a14
Dec ’24HK$54.80
HK$72.68
+32.6%
6.5%HK$81.09HK$62.57n/a14
Nov ’24HK$48.35
HK$73.16
+51.3%
6.2%HK$81.41HK$62.81HK$61.4514
Oct ’24HK$54.65
HK$74.35
+36.1%
4.8%HK$81.58HK$68.13HK$64.3015
Sep ’24HK$58.85
HK$74.35
+26.3%
4.8%HK$81.58HK$68.13HK$67.2015
Aug ’24HK$65.20
HK$74.34
+14.0%
5.9%HK$81.24HK$64.58HK$68.6514
Jul ’24HK$63.35
HK$74.63
+17.8%
5.9%HK$81.41HK$64.95HK$56.0014
Jun ’24HK$56.00
HK$74.48
+33.0%
5.8%HK$81.18HK$64.83HK$58.0014
May ’24HK$62.00
HK$74.67
+20.4%
5.8%HK$81.40HK$65.00HK$62.5014
Apr ’24HK$60.65
HK$75.40
+24.3%
5.5%HK$81.40HK$65.00HK$60.3013
Mar ’24HK$58.50
HK$75.02
+28.2%
5.1%HK$79.55HK$65.04HK$56.7013
Feb ’24HK$64.70
HK$75.02
+16.0%
5.1%HK$79.55HK$65.04HK$59.6013
Jan ’24HK$65.15
HK$73.96
+13.5%
5.4%HK$78.97HK$64.56HK$59.7013
Dec ’23HK$61.15
HK$73.80
+20.7%
5.2%HK$79.06HK$65.00HK$54.8013
Nov ’23HK$55.80
HK$74.07
+32.7%
5.4%HK$79.20HK$65.04HK$48.3512

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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