Is Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (HKG:2338) Worth HK$14.9 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Weichai Power fair value estimate is HK$11.42
• Weichai Power's HK$14.94 share price signals that it might be 31% overvalued
• The CN¥19.11 analyst price target for 2338 is 67% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (HKG:2338) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥18.5b	CN¥18.3b	CN¥7.32b	CN¥6.27b	CN¥5.68b	CN¥5.35b	CN¥5.18b	CN¥5.09b	CN¥5.07b	CN¥5.10b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ -14.37%	Est @ -9.33%	Est @ -5.80%	Est @ -3.33%	Est @ -1.60%	Est @ -0.39%	Est @ 0.46%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%	CN¥16.9k	CN¥15.4k	CN¥5.7k	CN¥4.4k	CN¥3.7k	CN¥3.2k	CN¥2.8k	CN¥2.6k	CN¥2.3k	CN¥2.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥59b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥5.1b× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (9.0%– 2.4%) = CN¥79b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥79b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)¹⁰= CN¥34b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥93b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$14.9, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Weichai Power as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.248. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for Weichai Power

SWOT Analysis for Weichai Power

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Weichai Power, there are three further items you should further research:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Weichai Power .
2. Future Earnings: How does 2338's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.