FDB Holdings Limited (HKG:1826) Stock Rockets 39% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

FDB Holdings Limited (HKG:1826) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 39% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 34% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that FDB Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Construction industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.3x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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Check out our latest analysis for FDB Holdings

How FDB Holdings Has Been Performing

FDB Holdings certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing its revenue at a really rapid pace. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on FDB Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

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Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like FDB Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 142%. The latest three year period has also seen a 23% overall rise in revenue, aided extensively by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that FDB Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

FDB Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of FDB Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for FDB Holdings (of which 2 are potentially serious!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.