Huayu Expressway Group Limited's (HKG:1823) 36% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Huayu Expressway Group Limited (HKG:1823) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 36% share price drop in the last month. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 70% share price decline.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Huayu Expressway Group's P/S ratio of 0.5x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Construction industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for Huayu Expressway Group

How Has Huayu Expressway Group Performed Recently?

It looks like revenue growth has deserted Huayu Expressway Group recently, which is not something to boast about. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Huayu Expressway Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Huayu Expressway Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Huayu Expressway Group's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 17% decline in revenue over the last three years in total. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Huayu Expressway Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Huayu Expressway Group looks to be in line with the rest of the Construction industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Huayu Expressway Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Huayu Expressway Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.