What BGMC International Limited's (HKG:1693) 63% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

BGMC International Limited (HKG:1693) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 63% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 39% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think BGMC International's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x is worth a mention when it essentially matches the median P/S in Hong Kong's Construction industry. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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View our latest analysis for BGMC International

What Does BGMC International's Recent Performance Look Like?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, BGMC International has been doing very well. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on BGMC International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is BGMC International's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like BGMC International's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 130% gain to the company's top line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 27% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 8.7% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that BGMC International is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

BGMC International's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We find it unexpected that BGMC International trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with BGMC International (including 3 which can't be ignored).

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.