Optimistic Investors Push CITIC Resources Holdings Limited (HKG:1205) Shares Up 29% But Growth Is Lacking

CITIC Resources Holdings Limited (HKG:1205) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 12% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about CITIC Resources Holdings' P/E ratio of 7.5x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

For instance, CITIC Resources Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

See our latest analysis for CITIC Resources Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on CITIC Resources Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like CITIC Resources Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 59%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it interesting that CITIC Resources Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now CITIC Resources Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of CITIC Resources Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for CITIC Resources Holdings that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of CITIC Resources Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.