Brilliance China Automotive Holdings' (HKG:1114) Shareholders May Want To Dig Deeper Than Statutory Profit

The stock price didn't jump after Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited (HKG:1114) posted decent earnings last week. Our analysis showed that there are some concerning factors in the earnings that investors may be cautious of.

Check out our latest analysis for Brilliance China Automotive Holdings

Zooming In On Brilliance China Automotive Holdings' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to December 2023, Brilliance China Automotive Holdings had an accrual ratio of 0.38. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥1.0b, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥7.73b. We saw that FCF was CN¥1.3b a year ago though, so Brilliance China Automotive Holdings has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Brilliance China Automotive Holdings' Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Brilliance China Automotive Holdings' earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Brilliance China Automotive Holdings' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (2 shouldn't be ignored!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Brilliance China Automotive Holdings' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.