It's been a good week for Titan Cement International S.A. (ATH:TITC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 6.8% to €12.90. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of €1.19 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of €1.7b came in 2.1% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Titan Cement International's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of €1.94b in 2022. This would be a solid 13% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.0% to €1.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.75b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.50 in 2022. Although revenues are expected to increase meaningfully, the analysts have acknowledged the cost of growth, given the real cut to EPS estimates following the latest report.
There's been no major changes to the price target of €18.52, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast sales and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Titan Cement International at €23.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €12.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Titan Cement International's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Titan Cement International to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Titan Cement International. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Titan Cement International analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Titan Cement International that we have uncovered.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.