Does National Bank of Greece SA.'s (ATH:ETE) Past Performance Indicate A Weaker Future?

When National Bank of Greece SA. (ATSE:ETE) released its most recent earnings update (31 December 2017), I wanted to understand how these figures stacked up against its past performance. The two benchmarks I used were National Bank of Greece's average earnings over the past couple of years, and its industry performance. These are useful yardsticks to help me gauge whether or not ETE actually performed well. Below is a quick commentary on how I see ETE has performed. See our latest analysis for National Bank of Greece

Was ETE weak performance lately part of a long-term decline?

For the purpose of this commentary, I like to use data from the most recent 12 months, which annualizes the latest 6-month earnings release, or some times, the latest annual report is already the most recent financial data. This blend enables me to assess various companies on a more comparable basis, using the most relevant data points. For National Bank of Greece, its most recent earnings (trailing twelve month) is -€194.00M, which, against last year’s figure, has become more negative. Given that these figures may be relatively nearsighted, I have estimated an annualized five-year figure for ETE's earnings, which stands at -€2.29B. This shows that, though net income is negative, it has become less negative over the years.

We can further assess National Bank of Greece's loss by looking at what the industry has been experiencing over the past few years. Each year, for the last five years National Bank of Greece's top-line has grown by 29.24% on average, signalling that the company is in a high-growth period with expenses racing ahead revenues, leading to annual losses. Scanning growth from a sector-level, the GR banks industry has been enduring some headwinds in the prior twelve months, leading to an average earnings drop of -18.67%. This is a significant change, given that the industry has constantly been delivering a a notable growth of 46.75% in the past half a decade. This means despite the fact that National Bank of Greece is presently loss-making, any recent headwind the industry is facing, National Bank of Greece is less exposed compared to its peers.

What does this mean?

Though National Bank of Greece's past data is helpful, it is only one aspect of my investment thesis. Companies that incur net loss is always difficult to forecast what will occur going forward, and when. The most insightful step is to examine company-specific issues National Bank of Greece may be facing and whether management guidance has steadily been met in the past. You should continue to research National Bank of Greece to get a more holistic view of the stock by looking at:

• 1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for ETE’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for ETE’s outlook.
• 2. Financial Health: Is ETE’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
• 3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the trailing twelve months from 31 December 2017. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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Simply Wall St analyst Simply Wall St and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.