Drax Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Drax Group has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 43%, while the Renewable Energy industry saw earnings growing at 18.1% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 4.6% per year. Drax Group's return on equity is 4%, and it has net margins of 1.4%.
Key information
42.97%
Earnings growth rate
43.77%
EPS growth rate
| Renewable Energy Industry Growth | 48.57% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.59% |
| Return on equity | 3.98% |
| Net Margin | 1.35% |
| Next Earnings Update | 30 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
DRX: Neutral Stance As Battery Agreements And Buybacks Support Future Returns
Analysts have edged their average price target for Drax Group up by £0.50 to £9.50, reflecting recent downgrades to more neutral ratings. They still acknowledge long term value opportunities and current fair pricing after the share price rally.DRX: Neutral Outlook As Battery Expansion And Buybacks Shape Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price targets for Drax Group higher to about £9.50 per share, reflecting slightly stronger revenue assumptions and a modestly lower discount rate. Recent rating changes suggest the stock is now viewed as more fairly valued after its recent share price move.
DRX: Rich P/E Leaves Little Protection If Long Term Projects Disappoint
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Drax Group slightly higher, with the implied price target moving from about £7.35 to roughly £7.42. Recent research highlights incremental improvements in profit margin assumptions and valuation multiples, even as near term revenue expectations remain cautious.DRX: Future Returns Will Rely On Execution Risks At Rich P/E
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Drax Group modestly higher, alongside a raised price target to £9.50. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue trends, margins and future P/E after recent downgrades that frame the shares as more fairly priced on current information.DRX: Neutral Stance As Battery Agreements And Buybacks Shape Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price target on Drax Group higher to £9.50 from £9.00, reflecting updated views on revenue trends, margins and future P/E, even as recent research updates describe the shares as fairly priced with a more neutral stance. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Drax Group points to a more balanced view, with higher price targets sitting alongside rating cuts to neutral stances.DRX: Future Returns Will Depend On Rich P/E Amid Softer Margins
The analyst price target for Drax Group has shifted modestly, with the updated fair value estimate moving from £6.80 to about £7.02, as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate, softer revenue and margin assumptions, and a higher expected future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a more cautious tone around Drax Group, with some bearish analysts questioning how much upside remains after the latest fair value adjustment.DRX: New Low Carbon Contract Will Support Earnings With Sustainability Trade Offs
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Drax Group from £8.24 to £9.29, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue trends, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Drax Group signed an agreement with the Low Carbon Contracts Company for a low carbon dispatchable contract for difference covering all four biomass units at Drax Power Station from April 2027 to March 2031, with a strike price of £109.90/MWh in 2012 real terms (Key Developments).Are Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Jan 28
DRX: New Low Carbon CfD Will Support Higher Long Term Profitability
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Drax Group from £10.63 to £11.20, citing updated assumptions that combine a slightly lower discount rate with a higher profit margin outlook, while still factoring in a revenue decline and a largely unchanged future P/E multiple. What's in the News Drax Group signed an agreement with the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) for a low carbon dispatchable Contracts for Difference (CfD) covering all four biomass units at Drax Power Station for April 2027 to March 2031, with a strike price of £109.90/MWh in 2012 real terms (Key Developments).DRX: Future Returns Will Rely On Lower-Priced Low Carbon Contract
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Drax Group slightly to reflect revised assumptions, including a fair value adjustment to £6.80, updated revenue and profit margin expectations, and a lower future P/E estimate. What's in the News Drax has signed a low carbon dispatchable Contract for Difference with the Low Carbon Contracts Company covering all four biomass units at Drax Power Station from April 2027 to March 2031, with a strike price of £109.90/MWh based on 2012 real prices (Key Developments).Insufficient Growth At Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Hampers Share Price
Dec 25DRX: Future Returns Will Depend On Lower-Priced Low Carbon Contract
Analysts have marginally trimmed their price target on Drax Group, citing slightly weaker revenue growth and profit margin expectations that outweigh a modest uplift in future valuation multiples. This reduces fair value by around £0.04 per share to approximately £6.85.DRX: New CfD Agreement Will Drive Up Power Generation Profitability
Analysts have raised their price target for Drax Group from £8.12 to £8.24. They cite slight improvements in discount rates and revenue projections, despite a more conservative outlook on profit margins and future valuation metrics.DRX: New Biomass Contract Will Drive Power Generation Momentum Forward
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Drax Group, lowering the fair value estimate from £8.39 to £8.12. This change is based on adjustments to expected growth rates and financial metrics.Dividends And Share Buybacks Will Shape Returns Amid Shifting Policy Risks
Drax Group Analyst Price Target Sees Marginal Adjustment Analysts have made a slight downward revision to Drax Group's price target, adjusting it by a few pence. Minor changes to the discount rate and future profit assumptions influenced their updated valuation.Government CfD And Renewables Will Drive Growth Amid Pellet Risks
Analysts have revised their price target for Drax Group downward, lowering the estimated fair value from £8.58 to £8.39 per share. This change reflects updated outlooks on the company's profitability and growth prospects.Government CfD And Renewables Will Drive Growth Amid Pellet Risks
Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Drax Group due to anticipated value creation from UK grid intermittency, upcoming share price catalysts, and a possible £200M share buyback extension; however, the consensus price target remains unchanged at £8.58. Analyst Commentary Expectation of increased value creation for Drax as grid intermittency rises in the UK power sector.Drax Group (LON:DRX) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
May 26Broker Revenue Forecasts For Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Are Surging Higher
Mar 13
Investments In FlexGen And BECCS Will Impact Future Earnings, But Policy Risks Persist
Strategic investments in flexible generation and energy solutions are set to enhance post-2027 earnings and revenue through expanded capacity and efficiency.Should You Investigate Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) At UK£6.30?
Jan 20Is Now The Time To Put Drax Group (LON:DRX) On Your Watchlist?
Dec 20Drax Group plc's (LON:DRX) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors
Nov 20Drax Group (LON:DRX) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
Sep 24What Is Drax Group plc's (LON:DRX) Share Price Doing?
Aug 31Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Surges 31% Yet Its Low P/E Is No Reason For Excitement
Jul 29What Does Drax Group plc's (LON:DRX) Share Price Indicate?
Apr 24Here's Why Drax Group (LON:DRX) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Apr 09Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Drax Group plc (LON:DRX)
Feb 07Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Doing What It Can To Lift Shares
Dec 24Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) Shares Could Be 23% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Oct 24Should You Investigate Drax Group plc (LON:DRX) At UK£5.20?
Sep 20Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Drax Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 5,391 | 73 | 499 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 5,521 | 240 | 529 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 5,651 | 408 | 546 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 5,907 | 467 | 560 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 6,163 | 527 | 587 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 6,581 | 590 | 587 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 7,000 | 654 | 587 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 7,367 | 608 | 585 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 7,733 | 562 | 583 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 7,921 | 373 | 573 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 8,110 | 184 | 562 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 7,943 | 135 | 521 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 7,775 | 85 | 481 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 7,123 | 148 | 446 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 6,471 | 211 | 412 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 5,780 | 133 | 384 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 5,088 | 56 | 356 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 4,695 | -35 | 322 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 4,302 | -125 | 289 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 4,273 | -160 | 290 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 4,245 | -195 | 291 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 4,352 | -89 | 295 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 4,410 | -49 | 304 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 4,468 | -10 | 313 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 4,553 | 14 | 330 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 4,393 | 28 | 323 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 4,311 | 24 | 299 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 4,229 | 20 | 274 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 4,091 | -33 | 287 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 3,952 | -86 | 299 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 3,818 | -127 | 282 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 3,684 | -168 | 266 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 3,474 | -104 | 233 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 3,264 | -40 | 199 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 3,107 | 77 | 184 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 2,950 | 194 | 168 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 2,995 | 180 | 174 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 3,040 | 166 | 179 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 3,053 | 111 | 180 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 3,065 | 56 | 181 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 3,062 | 115 | 184 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 3,060 | 174 | 187 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: DRX has a large one-off loss of £375.0M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st December, 2025.
Growing Profit Margin: DRX's current net profit margins (1.4%) are lower than last year (8.5%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: DRX has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 43% per year.
Accelerating Growth: DRX's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: DRX had negative earnings growth (-86.1%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Renewable Energy industry average (-17%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: DRX's Return on Equity (4%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/05 14:21 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Drax Group plc is covered by 27 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Mark Hives | Barclays |
| Dominic Nash | Barclays |
| Dominic Nash | Barclays |