Wincanton plc

LSE:WIN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£747.6m

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Wincanton Valuation

Is WIN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WIN (£6.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£7.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WIN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WIN?

Key metric: As WIN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WIN. This is calculated by dividing WIN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WIN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.8x
EarningsUK£25.90m
Market CapUK£747.60m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WIN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WIN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.8x
DX. DX (Group)
13.5x6.7%UK£306.8m
IDS International Distribution Services
13.2x28.9%UK£3.3b
GLTR Globaltrans Investment
2xn/aUS$715.1m
ZIG Zigup
6.7x-5.7%UK£841.7m
WIN Wincanton
28.8x15.2%UK£747.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WIN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x) compared to the peer average (8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WIN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WIN 28.8xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies6PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WIN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WIN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WIN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.8x
Fair PE Ratio13.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WIN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WIN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Nov ’25n/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Oct ’25n/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Sep ’25n/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Aug ’25n/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Jul ’25n/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Jun ’25n/a
UK£4.10
0%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
May ’25UK£6.04
UK£4.10
-32.1%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Apr ’25UK£6.00
UK£4.10
-31.7%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Mar ’25UK£6.30
UK£4.10
-34.9%
13.0%UK£5.00UK£3.65n/a4
Feb ’25UK£4.33
UK£3.78
-12.7%
3.6%UK£4.00UK£3.65n/a4
Jan ’25UK£3.12
UK£3.93
+25.8%
6.2%UK£4.30UK£3.65n/a6
Dec ’24UK£2.96
UK£3.93
+32.8%
6.2%UK£4.30UK£3.65n/a6
Nov ’24UK£2.63
UK£3.88
+47.9%
13.1%UK£4.60UK£3.00n/a6
Oct ’24UK£2.74
UK£3.88
+41.7%
13.1%UK£4.60UK£3.00n/a6
Sep ’24UK£2.36
UK£3.59
+52.5%
9.4%UK£3.95UK£3.00n/a6
Aug ’24UK£2.40
UK£3.59
+49.7%
9.4%UK£3.95UK£3.00n/a6
Jul ’24UK£2.52
UK£3.59
+42.8%
9.4%UK£3.95UK£3.00n/a6
Jun ’24UK£2.50
UK£3.59
+43.7%
9.4%UK£3.95UK£3.00n/a6
May ’24UK£2.15
UK£3.83
+78.0%
17.2%UK£5.24UK£3.00UK£6.047
Apr ’24UK£2.16
UK£3.83
+77.2%
17.2%UK£5.24UK£3.00UK£6.007
Mar ’24UK£3.09
UK£4.92
+59.2%
8.3%UK£5.50UK£4.10UK£6.307
Feb ’24UK£2.99
UK£4.92
+64.5%
8.3%UK£5.50UK£4.10UK£4.337
Jan ’24UK£3.37
UK£4.99
+48.1%
8.6%UK£5.50UK£4.10UK£3.127
Dec ’23UK£3.61
UK£4.99
+38.3%
8.6%UK£5.50UK£4.10UK£2.967
Nov ’23UK£3.38
UK£5.08
+50.2%
7.1%UK£5.50UK£4.30UK£2.637

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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