International Distribution Services plc

LSE:IDS Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£3.3b

International Distribution Services Valuation

Is IDS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IDS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IDS (£3.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£7.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IDS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IDS?

Key metric: As IDS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IDS. This is calculated by dividing IDS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IDS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio61.1x
EarningsUK£54.00m
Market CapUK£3.30b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IDS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IDS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.4x
DX. DX (Group)
13.5x6.7%UK£306.8m
FGP FirstGroup
9.3x9.9%UK£881.7m
CKN Clarkson
13.7x1.9%UK£1.1b
MFT Mainfreight
37.4x17.0%NZ$7.4b
IDS International Distribution Services
61.1x45.3%UK£3.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IDS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.1x) compared to the peer average (18.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IDS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IDS 61.1xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IDS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.1x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IDS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IDS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio61.1x
Fair PE Ratio25.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IDS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (61.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IDS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.45
UK£3.17
-8.1%
19.7%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a6
Nov ’25UK£3.39
UK£3.15
-7.2%
18.5%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Oct ’25UK£3.43
UK£3.15
-8.2%
18.5%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Sep ’25UK£3.39
UK£3.05
-10.1%
18.2%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Aug ’25UK£3.47
UK£3.05
-12.2%
18.2%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Jul ’25UK£3.25
UK£2.90
-10.5%
17.9%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Jun ’25UK£3.36
UK£2.76
-17.9%
12.9%UK£3.14UK£2.00n/a7
May ’25UK£2.72
UK£2.80
+2.8%
15.3%UK£3.25UK£1.80n/a8
Apr ’25UK£2.29
UK£2.93
+27.9%
25.3%UK£4.55UK£1.60n/a12
Mar ’25UK£2.42
UK£2.93
+21.3%
24.6%UK£4.50UK£1.60n/a13
Feb ’25UK£2.73
UK£2.93
+7.4%
24.6%UK£4.50UK£1.60n/a13
Jan ’25UK£2.72
UK£2.79
+2.5%
19.8%UK£3.69UK£1.60n/a13
Dec ’24UK£2.51
UK£2.74
+9.4%
19.3%UK£3.69UK£1.60n/a13
Nov ’24UK£2.53
UK£2.78
+9.9%
19.7%UK£3.69UK£1.60UK£3.3913
Oct ’24UK£2.61
UK£2.82
+8.1%
21.9%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.4313
Sep ’24UK£2.42
UK£2.75
+13.4%
23.0%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.3913
Aug ’24UK£2.66
UK£2.75
+3.1%
23.0%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.4713
Jul ’24UK£2.21
UK£2.54
+15.1%
26.5%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.2513
Jun ’24UK£1.96
UK£2.54
+29.6%
26.5%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.3613
May ’24UK£2.53
UK£2.56
+1.0%
28.1%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.7213
Apr ’24UK£2.25
UK£2.56
+13.9%
28.1%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.2913
Mar ’24UK£2.32
UK£2.54
+9.3%
29.0%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.4213
Feb ’24UK£2.29
UK£2.53
+10.4%
28.6%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.7313
Jan ’24UK£2.13
UK£2.61
+22.6%
31.2%UK£4.10UK£1.15UK£2.7214
Dec ’23UK£2.32
UK£2.96
+27.5%
40.4%UK£5.20UK£1.15UK£2.5114
Nov ’23UK£2.07
UK£2.96
+42.9%
47.1%UK£5.20UK£1.15UK£2.5313

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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