International Distribution Services plc

LSE:IDS Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£3.5b

International Distribution Services Valuation

Is IDS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IDS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£10.63
Fair Value
65.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: IDS (£3.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£10.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IDS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IDS?

Key metric: As IDS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IDS. This is calculated by dividing IDS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IDS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsUK£252.00m
Market CapUK£3.49b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IDS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IDS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.4x
EZJ easyJet
8.4x9.3%UK£3.8b
FGP FirstGroup
10.4x3.1%UK£984.7m
JET2 Jet2
6.3x-0.3%UK£3.1b
CKN Clarkson
16.6x2.3%UK£1.4b
IDS International Distribution Services
13.9x27.1%UK£3.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IDS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IDS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IDS 13.9xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IDS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IDS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IDS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IDS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IDS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.65
UK£3.64
-0.2%
1.2%UK£3.70UK£3.60n/a6
Jan ’26UK£3.64
UK£3.64
+0.1%
1.2%UK£3.70UK£3.60n/a6
Dec ’25UK£3.57
UK£3.17
-11.1%
19.7%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a6
Nov ’25UK£3.39
UK£3.15
-7.2%
18.5%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Oct ’25UK£3.43
UK£3.15
-8.2%
18.5%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Sep ’25UK£3.39
UK£3.05
-10.1%
18.2%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Aug ’25UK£3.47
UK£3.05
-12.2%
18.2%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Jul ’25UK£3.25
UK£2.90
-10.5%
17.9%UK£3.70UK£2.00n/a7
Jun ’25UK£3.36
UK£2.76
-17.9%
12.9%UK£3.14UK£2.00n/a7
May ’25UK£2.72
UK£2.80
+2.8%
15.3%UK£3.25UK£1.80n/a8
Apr ’25UK£2.29
UK£2.93
+27.9%
25.3%UK£4.55UK£1.60n/a12
Mar ’25UK£2.42
UK£2.93
+21.3%
24.6%UK£4.50UK£1.60n/a13
Feb ’25UK£2.73
UK£2.93
+7.4%
24.6%UK£4.50UK£1.60n/a13
Jan ’25UK£2.72
UK£2.79
+2.5%
19.8%UK£3.69UK£1.60UK£3.6413
Dec ’24UK£2.51
UK£2.74
+9.4%
19.3%UK£3.69UK£1.60UK£3.5713
Nov ’24UK£2.53
UK£2.78
+9.9%
19.7%UK£3.69UK£1.60UK£3.3913
Oct ’24UK£2.61
UK£2.82
+8.1%
21.9%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.4313
Sep ’24UK£2.42
UK£2.75
+13.4%
23.0%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.3913
Aug ’24UK£2.66
UK£2.75
+3.1%
23.0%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.4713
Jul ’24UK£2.21
UK£2.54
+15.1%
26.5%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.2513
Jun ’24UK£1.96
UK£2.54
+29.6%
26.5%UK£4.10UK£1.60UK£3.3613
May ’24UK£2.53
UK£2.56
+1.0%
28.1%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.7213
Apr ’24UK£2.25
UK£2.56
+13.9%
28.1%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.2913
Mar ’24UK£2.32
UK£2.54
+9.3%
29.0%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.4213
Feb ’24UK£2.29
UK£2.53
+10.4%
28.6%UK£4.10UK£1.35UK£2.7313
Jan ’24UK£2.13
UK£2.61
+22.6%
31.2%UK£4.10UK£1.15UK£2.7214
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
UK£3.64
Fair Value
0.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/19 14:13
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/29
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

International Distribution Services plc is covered by 27 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Susanna InvernizziBarclays
William Fitzalan HowardBerenberg
Hugo WatkinsBNP Paribas Exane